Goldman Sachs advises selling dollar against a basket of currencies
According to analysts of Goldman Sachs, United States current account deficit, as well as the acute lack of investment flows into the country, coupled with an extremely supportive monetary policy will lead to a further weakening of the dollar. "Yesterday's FOMC statement, from which it follows that the FED stands ready to increase your balance and makes us think about the inevitability of QE3", says Thomas Stolper, head of currency research Bank in New York. -"Recent macroeconomic figures confirm a sharp slowdown in the United States, implying a further reduction in capital inflows into the country and complicating the financing of current account deficit. Therefore, we recommend selling the dollar against a basket of currencies of commodity-exporting countries and countries with strong trade balance, such as the Kiwi dollar, Swedish krona, South Korean won, the Malaysian Ringgit and the Chilean peso. All currencies in the basket have the same weight; stop-loss is exhibited at -2%, and the original purpose is +5%. JPMorgan: in August, the dollar/Yen seasonally falls
According to JPMorgan Chase statistical calculations, since 1998, the exchange rate USD/Yen decline in August 11 times out of 13 possible. In their morning analytical commentary to the mail clients of the Bank, said Tohru Sasaki, head of currency research, JPMorgan Chase in Tokyo. "In each of the 11 cases decline in August, its maximum pixel rate dollar/Yen was formed during the first 10 days of the month. On average, the August decline in 11 cases of monthly maximum was 3-4%. Assuming that this month, the dollar/Yen will behave in a typical manner, Augustus maximum is already generated (note. Profinance.ru: top 4 August), and now must be followed by reduction to the end of the month ", writes in his comments Mr Sasaki. JPMorgan still believes that there will be no further intervention by the Bank of Japan, even if the course strikes the minimum of the current month in the area of 76.25.
Societe Generale of the situation on the market
One of the currency strategists Societe Generale, Sebastian Ghali, notes that fluctuations in the financial markets are corrupted. He adds that in the short term, the market will continue to dominate the rumours that undermine improved investor sentiment. Ghali announces intention to use the current situation to buy gold at SAG and sell Canadian currency for growth. He believed that in the near future should not wait for the change of mood in the market, at least until there are signs of economic stability of the United States. During the trades euro/dollar touched on $ 1.4270/80, where it collided with the interest in buying on the part of sovereign accounts. Pair of skorrektirovalas? to $ 1.4250. At the moment the euro/dollar is kept at the level $ 1.4251.
In the latest report on inflation, the Bank of England apparently ceased to accept the realities of the current economic situation, despite the uncertainty concerning recent developments in the global economy, as well as the recent disappointing data on GDP. Projected inflation now slightly below the target 2% for two years, suggesting that interest rates are already on the way provided for in the financial markets. However, this path has changed significantly, notwithstanding the fact that the data were built a week ago and that now was not a market increase in interest rates in the next two years. Unlike the Bank of England, the Fed yesterday acknowledged that growth was "significantly below expectations"; The Bank of England did not make such statements, even though the forecast for growth in the second quarter was 1.4% in annual calculation (in fact it was 0.7%). instead, the BANK of England said that "production last year grew below the average historical levels," that sounds distinctly like understatement. Sterling fell even before the report is published, waiting for more lenient conditions against the backdrop of the FED meeting, suggesting a muted reaction to a report today over the last 12:0 am we sawthat the policy options for the FED, the Swiss National Bank and Bank of England became more limited and less effective. It is most concerned about the background of the current global recession and increased tension on the activity of financial markets; firepower is now three years ago. The term "political paralysis" could well become a catchphrase for politicians in the coming months around the world, because now it would be very difficult to come up with effective measures to combat renewed global concerns.
In the 12:30 GMT Canada will publish the index of housing prices.
In the 12:30 GMT release trade balance United States. Expected to reduce the deficit to $ 47.50 billion. against $ 50.23 billion.
Similar data for Canada are also at this time.
Data of the Ministry of labour will in the United States traditionally 12:30 GMT.
Japan will publish the index of industrial production on Friday at 04:30 GMT.
The EU will publish data from the industrial sector at 09:00 GMT.
Data on retail sales United States scheduled for 12:30 GMT. Expected increase of 0.4% in July after + 0.1%.
Preliminary assessment of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan will be 13:55 GMT.
United States dollar rose against most major rivals. Reason for the increase was the continuing demand for Exchange with the status of the safe haven after the final statement the FED only heightened the fears of certain further growth of the world economy. The euro fell against the dollar amid concern the further spread of the crisis in the EU. Investors fear that the credit rating of France, the second largest economy in Europe after Germany might be downgraded by the Agency S&P, even though the main rating agencies confirmed it on the level "AAA".
Swiss franc retreated from reached highs against the dollar after the National Bank of Switzerland said that it would be "substantially increase" liquidity reserves and increase deposits to prevent the strengthening of the national currency.
Canadian dollar retreated against the American dollar amid fears of slowing economic growth in the United States, Canada's largest trading partner. CAD has also put pressure on the drop in oil prices, the main component of Canada's exports, which had not supported today, even the report of the United States Department of energy, which recorded a decline in stocks of crude oil at 5.23 million barrels versus expectations of growth at 1.35 million barrels.
EUR/USD: on the basis of yesterday's session, the pair declined $ 1.4160 area.
Calendar News forex http://форекс-валютная-биржа.рф. August 11, 201101:30 Australia's unemployment rate, 4.9% 4.9%
01:30 Australia inflation expectations of consumers, 3.4%
01:30 Australia changing the number of employed, 23.4 to 10.3 to
08:00 Eurozone the monthly economic report, the ECB-
12:30 United States Primary treatment for unemployment benefit, week 6 August 400K 412K
12:30 United States balance of trade, bln. June-50.2-47.5
12:30 trade balance Canada, bln. June-0.8-0.9
No comments:
Post a Comment